Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
